Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, warned on Tuesday that Britain’s seeming inability to decide on an orderly departure agreement has made a so-called no-deal Brexit more likely with less than two weeks until April 12, the latest deadline.
While a further extension of the deadline was possible, nothing was certain. Here’s what could happen if Britain leaves the bloc without a deal.
Ports could be jammed.
Ferries and trains zip back and forth between southeast England and Calais in France carrying food, goods and people between Britain and the rest of the European Union. If Britain leaves without a divorce agreement, many worry that issues with new customs arrangements could lead to miles of traffic jams, forcing trucks to sit for hours on highways as food rots and manufacturing processes grind to a halt.
“I expect to see long queues at the ports because traders, importers and exporters and the logistics supply chain are not prepared for the new customs arrangements here or in the E.U.,” said Duncan Buchanan, the policy director at Britain’s Road Haulage Association. “We will get a massive slowdown in the supply chain.”
Britain has said that it will allow trucks to drive off ferries and trains without extra checks and declarations, but other European Union countries have not said the same about traffic from Britain. British haulers arriving at ports could find themselves turned away if they have not completed correct paperwork.
Food shortages could erupt.
Farmers and food producers have warned that supplies could dwindle.
Nearly a third of the food consumed in Britain comes from the European Union, but if the trucks bringing that food in are stuck, consumers might find it harder to purchase perishables like lettuce and tomatoes.
Food producers also have warned that the extra paperwork, a weaker British currency and tariffs on food could increase prices. Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, said that food prices could rise as much as 10 percent.
A no-deal Brexit could also lead to company closings in the food industry. One in four food exporters could be out of business in six weeks, according to the Food and Drink Federation.
Manufacturing could halt.
A large part of Britain’s manufacturing industry relies on just-in-time manufacturing, which means that parts travel between Britain and Europe constantly and arrive within minutes of being used in factories.
This process could collapse if traffic comes to a standstill at Dover or Calais, and the parts that manufacturers need are stuck in transit. Several auto manufacturers said they would shut down factories temporarily to adjust to such disruptions.
Some manufacturers halted work temporarily after March 29, the original deadline for Britain to depart, fearful of a no-deal Brexit. But the idling of their plants had been planned months in advance. If Britain departs on April 12 without a deal, factories that have reopened could still be hit by disruptions.
Medicine shortages could loom.
The pharmaceutical industry has expressed concern that a no-deal Brexit, which could cause the British pound to plunge, could in turn make medicine supplies in Britain far more valuable — and profitable — to sell overseas, leading to severe shortages in the country. Manufacturers have called on the government to impose a temporary export ban on vital medicines to protect against that possibility.
“We’ve built all these stockpiles. Now we need to make sure that if in the next month the pound should collapse, that middle men don’t sell those stockpiles to people in the E.U. in order to make money,” Mike Thompson, the chief executive of the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry, said in a statement.
British and E.U. citizens will be in limbo
The European Commission has urged E.U. member states to ensure that British citizens living within their boundaries can continue to be legal residents, but this depends on each nation.
The British residents of other European Union countries may also find themselves ineligible for health care, and the government has advised them to take out separate health insurance until they have residency permits.
Theresa May, Britain’s prime minister, has said that European Union citizens in Britain will be able to stay even if the country leaves without a deal, and that she has a settlement proposal for them. But a parliamentary human rights committee has questioned whether the government has adequately protected their rights.
The border with Ireland could turn messy.
Ireland, a European Union member, wants to avoid a physical border with Northern Ireland, which is part of Britain, because such a barrier could undermine the 1998 Good Friday agreement that helped end sectarian violence. But a no-deal Brexit could abruptly impose restrictions on the people, goods and services crossing between Ireland and Northern Ireland.
The Irish government has proposed allowing people and services to move across the border in the event of a no-deal Brexit, but not goods.
Business as usual for banks and airlines.
The financial sector has been preparing for a no-deal Brexit since shortly after Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016, so few expect a visible effect on the sector in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
Many banks have set up offices in cities like Frankfurt, Paris and Dublin, so that they can continue to provide the same services seamlessly.
The European Commission also has passed legislation that will prevent disruption for airlines flying in the region.
