At 8:30 a.m. Eastern time on Friday, the Labor Department will release its latest hiring and unemployment figures, providing one of the better snapshots of the state of the American economy. This is what you should watch for.

Another Record?

Even with trade tensions rising, analysts expect a shot of good news. The report is expected to show that payrolls increased by roughly 200,000 last month after a gain of 223,000 in May, adding to a string of encouraging economic reports.

Some estimates of second-quarter growth are bouncing above 4 percent. The manufacturing sector buzzed with activity last month, and spending on construction rose. New jobless claims are dragging along at historically low levels. And many consumers displayed their confidence in the economy by kicking off the summer with a new car purchase.

Most analysts expect the jobless rate to remain at 3.8 percent. But if it dropped a tenth of a point, this would be the first time in nearly a half-century that such a small sliver of the American work force had been without a job.

“It’s a psychologically important barrier,” said Andrew Chamberlain, chief economist at the jobs listing website Glassdoor. “People are always trying to put it in historical context, asking: ‘When was the last time the world was like this?’” The answer is October 1969.

The Tariff Effect

Surveys of business owners around the country have been chock-full of comments expressing dismay with the uncertainty generated by tariffs, whether newly imposed or threatened.

Last week, General Motors said tariffs could lead to “less investment, fewer jobs and lower wages.” And the motorcycle manufacturer Harley-Davidson, based in Wisconsin, announced it would shift some production overseas to sidestep retaliatory tariffs imposed by European countries.

Although President Trump announced steel and aluminum tariffs at the end of May, it will take time for any resulting trims in hiring or payrolls to be reflected in the monthly figures. If early signs surface, they will probably be in manufacturing, which added 18,000 jobs in May.

The Wage Question

Employers complain of a labor shortage, but wages have been rising relatively slowly. Analysts expect the June figures to show an 0.3 percent rise in average hourly earnings, bringing the year-over-year gain to 2.8 percent. With low unemployment ostensibly giving them a stronger bargaining position, workers are looking for bigger gains.

Too big a jump, though, and there could be concern on Wall Street that the economy will overheat and accelerate inflation, prompting tighter credit. If the year-over-year increase surges too much past the 2.8 percent forecast, the stock market might take a dive, as it did in February after a strong January report.

To Tweet or Not to Tweet

Last month, Mr. Trump broke with practice and hinted on Twitter more than an hour before the Labor Department’s announcement that the news was positive: “Looking forward to seeing the employment numbers at 8:30 this morning.”

Such clues can move markets — which is why the information has traditionally been closely held until its release. More traders may be up earlier than usual to check the president’s Twitter feed for signals about the report.

(Original source)