The new study was correlational, meaning that the authors could not determine whether watching the show actually influenced the suicide of any viewer. But, unlike many previous claims of spikes in suicide rates, the researchers took into account seasonal differences in suicide rates, and recent trends.
“They nicely controlled for this by looking across years and showing a discontinuity for this particular year only,” said Matthew K. Nock, a psychologist at Harvard.
In the analysis, a team led by Jeffrey A. Bridge, of the Research Institute at Nationwide Children’s Hospital in Columbus, Ohio, analyzed suicide data from the Center for Disease Control between January 2013 and December 2017. After correcting for trends and seasonal effects, the team found that rates did not exceed expected levels in 2017 for people over age 18.
But among those aged 10 to 17, the rate jumped nearly 30 percent in April 2017, and remained higher for the year. The study estimated that 195 more suicides occurred in 2017 in this age group than would be expected given current trends.
“This is the first report I’ve seen like this, and of course it was our greatest fear that this might be a possibility” with the show, said Dr. Victor Schwartz, chief medical officer at the JED Foundation, a teen suicide prevention group.
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Dr. Schwartz also said that Netflix had consulted with the JED Foundation along the way, and that the second season had incorporated several of his group’s recommendations.
In a surprise, boys accounted for almost all of the increase in 2017. The research team had anticipated that girls, identifying with the star of the show, would be more vulnerable. Dr. Horowitz said that looking at suicide-attempt data, which the researchers did not have, might have told another story.
