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Elon Musk might just talk himself into a discounted Tesla buyout.
The electric-car maker’s chief executive is in a battle with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission — not for the first time — over a tweet. At worst, the S.E.C. could force him out of his role at the company.
But what then? Tesla’s stock would tumble, putting the company in play — potentially allowing Mr. Musk to revive the buyout idea that first got him into trouble.
Mr. Musk has until March 11 to explain to U.S. District Judge Alison Nathan why a social-media post, in which he wrongly suggested Tesla would make 500,000 cars this year, wasn’t a breach of an earlier promise to have his tweets vetted by the company’s lawyers. If she rules against him, the S.E.C. may impose a heavy fine. But at worst, it could force him out.
Two things could then happen:
• First, the stock would almost certainly tumble. How much is anyone’s guess, but since Mr. Musk is closely associated with the brand, let’s assume Tesla’s value halves to $26 billion.
• Second, the company might become a takeover target. At a discounted price it would be enticing for carmakers like Toyota or Daimler and for the likes of Apple, Waymo and even Lyft or Uber. Or maybe even Mr. Musk himself.
Being ejected from Tesla would leave Mr. Musk free to revive his plan from last summer to take the company private. The infamous tweet in which he said he was “considering taking Tesla private at $420. Funding secured” is what prompted the S.E.C. to accuse him of fraud. And it led to the October court-approved agreement that the regulator on Monday accused him of violating.
He has a number of advantages over rival potential bidders, not least his 20 percent ownership stake. The board may be amenable: It’s still packed with his friends, business partners and family. Meanwhile, if his putative backers really were prepared to help buy Tesla at $72 billion — the valuation implied by his tweet — they certainly should be at $26 billion.
Mr. Musk might even feel inclined to send the S.E.C. a thank-you note. Via Twitter, of course.
